Madagascar: Waiting and uncertainty follows “Red Saturday”

from http://www.afrika.no/Detailed/18010.html
By Venusia Vinciguerra and Lucien David (photo) for www. afrika.no in Madagascar | 03.03.2009



The Tiko stores are the property of Madagascar's president Ravalomanana. Many of them were looted during the unrest (Photo: Lucien David)


Antsirabe (Madagascar - Venusia Vinciguerra) - Uncertainty is now the most common feeling for the people living in Madagascar. The population, as well as the expatriates in the country, appears exhausted from the constant feeling that something big will soon happen, but then nothing seems to really happen.
Andry Rajoelina, former major of Antananarivo, proclaimed himself new head of state, and attempted to create a parallel administration and install his ministers into position. He started his “orange revolution” after president Ravalomanana closed his TV channel, VIVA TV, due to the broadcasting of an interview with the former president, Didier Ratsiraka.
The young Rajoelina called for a general strike in Antananarivo on January 26th, a strike that turned into a mass looting in the capital. The main factories and retails stores of Tiko, the president’s company, were attacked, robbed and destroyed. In addition, his TV and radio channels where destroyed, together with the national TV and radio channels, leaving most of Madagascar without broadcasts. The mass pillaging went on, destroying the few well functioning malls of the city, and emptying many rice storages, owned by privates. leaving the impression that the looting was not driven only by political intentions, but also by desperation or by opportunism.
The same escalation was witnessed the day after in other cities, as Antsirabe, Fianarantsoa, Mahajanga and Toliara, where Tiko storages and stores as well as rice reserves were emptied and vandalized. Looting continued over night between Tuesday 27th and Wednesday 28th. Reportedly about 100 people died or got injured, mostly due to accidents connected to the pillaging, while the army remained mostly an observer of the happenings. In Toliara there was a broad and massive participation, entire families carried as many rice bags as they could handle: on bikes, rickshaws, carts or on their shoulders. Also children were involved, and some made themselves thieves for a bag of orange juice, or for parts of broken toys. BIANCO, an anticorruption agency financed partly by Norway, was also vandalized: computers were stolen and sold, documents were thoroughly burned (!), and even windows, toilets, cables and roof’s components disappeared. The looting left the city of Toliara with a feeling of Wild West in the air. Stores remained closed for some days; especially those run by Indo-Pakistanis, who fear the anger of the Malagasy people against their commercial supremacy. Some goods are now scarce in the city: milk and butter, which are produced and distributed only by Tiko, but also oil is hard to find. Many foresee an increase of rice prices, the main staple for Malagasy people, and market prices for vegetables and fruits rose already.
Some weeks passed in uncertainty and apparent calmness, until Saturday 7th of February. Samedi Rouge (Red Saturday), as it is called by the Malagasy press, witnessed the shooting against the demonstrators who crossed the “red line” in front of the presidential palace in Antananarivo, making 28 victims (including a reporter), and numerous injured. A video reconstruction of the shooting is now being sold on DVDs and publicly screened in several Malagasy towns.
Ravalomanana did not recognize Rajoelina as a counterpart for negotiations in the beginning, and discharged and replaced him from his post as mayor of the capital. Predictably Rajoelina did not accept this decision, and went on to designate another replacement, leaving the city with two unelected mayors.
Finally on February 23rd, negotiations between Mark Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina started, with the assistance of representatives from the Council of Christian Churches in Madagascar (FFKM). Three meetings between the two contenders increased the hope for a peaceful solution. However, the hope diminished when the president did not personally attend the 4th meeting. Predictably Rajoelina declared the end of negotiations, and did not show up to the next meeting. Also the archbishop of Antananarivo, Odon Razanakolona, one of the facilitators, quit the negotiations, as he saw no developments. As a result, demonstration restarted, leading to two other fatalities in Fianarantsoa. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon appointed the former foreign minister of Mali, Tiebilé Dramé, as facilitator, and asked the archbishop to rejoin the negotiations.
The consequences of this political instability are numerous. Among others, the crisis of the tourism market, with nearly 100% cancellations, and 50% workers sent home according to the FHORM (Fédération des hôteliers et restaurateurs de Madagascar), and the Malagasy National Tourism Office, who made an official declaration asking the parties to quickly find an agreement. Another immediate consequence is the delay of the start of the new university year, with even the risk of a year cancellation due to lack of security (L’express de Madagascar, 28.02.2009).
Many are tired of the president’s actions, denouncing him of focusing on his own interests over those of the population. At the same time, it is not clear if the young businessman and former DJ Rajoelina will be the answer. It seems like the ex-major will continue his efforts to remove the president; but after the last events in Antananarivo, his popularity seems uncertain. Many see in this situation a repetition of Ravalomanana’s struggle to take the power from Didier Ratsiraka in 2002. However, there is a core difference: in 2002 the two contenders where conflicting over a contested election, while Rajoelina’s current request is not related to any electoral event.
Finally, this contest involves two merinas (the ethnic group of the highlands), and might not seem a fair play to the coastal population, who would like to see their ethnicities well represented, maybe by a president.
Uncertainty spreads in Madagascar, people wait.