A life in crises?

Crisis is a popular word these days. To mention a few, we are (in theory) affected by the global financial crisis, the global warming crisis, the socio-economic crisis and the political crisis in Madagascar. Affected by all these crises you should think that we live a quite tough life, but as our visitors from Norway could witness, our life is far from very tough. Except for an exceptional identity crisis or the more common “I have to run to the bathroom – crisis”, we are by no means in need of crisis management.

To say that we live a totally normal life these days is to exaggerate, since waking up to the sounds of grenades and gunshots is not a part of our daily routine. Neither is to wake up with police equipped with Kaleshnikovs and bulletproof vests, having a check point outside our house. However, a part from those incidents and the fact that we are very attentive to the news, our life is pretty normal. We have restarted our English teaching, and the students seemed very happy to have us back. Yesterday we had a conversation class, where the discussion of course was the political situation of Madagascar. Some of them are very well informed about what’s going on, others are relying on information they are getting from others. In a situation like this it is very interesting to hear all the rumors that go around, some of them quite spectacular.

The situation in the capital however, is reported to be critical. The opposition claims to control the army, and gave the president a deadline to leave his post. However, the president has made it clear that he will not do so, even after the opposition took control of prime minister’s office. So we are back to the same question we have been asking ourselves for the last two months: “What will happen next?” The president seems isolated, but how isolated is he, since he’s not leaving the presidential palace? Is the army really controlled by the opposition, or is it not that simple? We have given up on the guessing game, it’s just to wait and see…

The Americans are as usually having a bit more of a precautionary approach. The US Embassy has asked their citizens to consider leaving the country, and the substantial amount of American Peace Corps volunteers that are here, are according to our information being brought to South-Africa.

It was interesting to see the reactions of our students when we told them about the Americans leaving the country. We often get the feeling that many do not understand the gravity of the situation for the country. After a week as “tourists” we saw how difficult the situation is for the tourist business. We were basically alone in all hotels along the road between Antsirabe and Tulear. We saw businesses were people were laid off. In the magnificent National Parc Isalo, we were the only visitors that day. In Anakao, south of Tulear, three out of about 20 hotels bothered to be open. And of course, most likely, this is just the beginning…

In Tana there have been new rounds of looting just recently. The country has proved itself unable to protect private investments, making it impossible for foreign investors who used to see Madagascar as a country of opportunity. Tourists won’t come in big numbers for a long time. Another crisis is in the air…

Italiano: Una vita in crisi?

Crisi e’ una parola popolare di questi tempi. Per esempio siamo (in teoria) in piena crisi finaziaria globale, c’e’ la crisi per il cambiamento climatico, e la crisi socio-economica nonche’ politica in Madagascar... Con tutte queste crisi penserete che la nostra vita qui e’ abbastanza difficile. Invece, come hanno constatato i nostri ospiti norvegesi, il nostro quotidiano e’ lontano dall’essere complicato. Eccetto per le eccezionali crisi d’identita’: la piu’ comune “devo correre al bagno-crisi”, non abbiamo bisogno di una speciale unita’ di gestione della crisi.

In ogni caso, dire che abbiamo una vita totalmente normale in questi giorni, e’ esagerato, dato che svegliarsi al suono delle granate e colpi di fucile non e’ parte della nostra normale routine. Come non lo e’ svegliarsi e trovare la polizia armata di Kaleshnikovs e giubbotti antiproiettili per creare un posto di blocco davanti a casa nostra. In ogni caso, a parte questo tipo d’incidenti ed il fatto che siamo molto attenti alle notizie, la nostra vita e’ piuttosto normale. Abbiamo ricominciato con l’insegnamento dell’inglese, e gli studenti sono sembrati molto contenti di riaverci tra loro. Ieri facevamo conversazione in classe, e la discussione era naturalmente sulla crisi politica in Madagscar. Alcuni studenti sono molto ben informati su quello che accade, mente altri si basano piuttosto sui sentito dire. In situazioni come questa e’ molto interessante sentire tutte le voci che girano, alcune di queste sono alquanto spettacolari.

In ogni caso la situazione nella capitale appare critica. L’opposizione afferma di controllare l’esercito, e ha dato al presidente un ultimatum per lasciare l’incarico. Ciononostante, il presidente ha rifiutato di andarsene, pur sapendo che l’ufficio del primo ministro e’ ormai nelle mani dell’opposizione. Quindi torniamo a chiederci la stessa domanda che ci siamo chiesti negli ultimi due mesi: “cosa succedera’ adesso?” Il presidente sembra isolato, ma quanto e’ isolato dato che rifiuta di lasciare il palazzo presidenziale? L’opposizione controlla davvero l’esercito o ne controlla solo una parte? Abbiamo smesso il gioco del tirare a indovinare, aspettiamo per vedere...

Gli Amercani hanno come al solito in queste cose, un approccio piu’ cauto. L’Ambasciata americana ha chiesto ai suoi cittadini di lasciare il paese, ad esempio i numerosi volontari (peace corps) normalmente presenti qui, sono stati trasferiti in Sud Africa.

Vedere le reazioni dei nostri studenti alla notizia che della partena degli americani, e’ stato interessante. In quanto spesso ci sembra che molti qui non si rendano pienamente conto della gravita’ di quello che sta succedendo. Dopo una settimana da “turisti” con i nostri amici venuti a trovarci, abbiamo visto quanto e’ difficile la situazione per gli operatori turistici. Eravamo infatti praticamente soli nei vari hotels sulla strada tra Antsirabe e Toliara. Abbiamo visitato diversi posti dove il personale e’ in cassa integrazione (non pagato). Nel magnifico Parco Nazionale dell’Isalo eravamo gli unici turisti. Ad Anakao, sud di Toliara, solo tre dei circa 20 hotel, erano aperti. E naturlamente, molto probabilmente, questo e’ solo l’inizio...

In Tana recentemente ci sono stati dei nuovi furti di massa. Il Paese ha dimostrato di essere incapace di difendere gli investimenti dei privati, perdendo l’opportunita’ di attirare investimenti dagli stranieri che vedevano il Madagascar come un posto sicuro. Probabilmente i turisti non si faranno vedere per un bel po. Un altra crisi nell’aria...

Madagascar: Waiting and uncertainty follows “Red Saturday”

from http://www.afrika.no/Detailed/18010.html
By Venusia Vinciguerra and Lucien David (photo) for www. afrika.no in Madagascar | 03.03.2009



The Tiko stores are the property of Madagascar's president Ravalomanana. Many of them were looted during the unrest (Photo: Lucien David)


Antsirabe (Madagascar - Venusia Vinciguerra) - Uncertainty is now the most common feeling for the people living in Madagascar. The population, as well as the expatriates in the country, appears exhausted from the constant feeling that something big will soon happen, but then nothing seems to really happen.
Andry Rajoelina, former major of Antananarivo, proclaimed himself new head of state, and attempted to create a parallel administration and install his ministers into position. He started his “orange revolution” after president Ravalomanana closed his TV channel, VIVA TV, due to the broadcasting of an interview with the former president, Didier Ratsiraka.
The young Rajoelina called for a general strike in Antananarivo on January 26th, a strike that turned into a mass looting in the capital. The main factories and retails stores of Tiko, the president’s company, were attacked, robbed and destroyed. In addition, his TV and radio channels where destroyed, together with the national TV and radio channels, leaving most of Madagascar without broadcasts. The mass pillaging went on, destroying the few well functioning malls of the city, and emptying many rice storages, owned by privates. leaving the impression that the looting was not driven only by political intentions, but also by desperation or by opportunism.
The same escalation was witnessed the day after in other cities, as Antsirabe, Fianarantsoa, Mahajanga and Toliara, where Tiko storages and stores as well as rice reserves were emptied and vandalized. Looting continued over night between Tuesday 27th and Wednesday 28th. Reportedly about 100 people died or got injured, mostly due to accidents connected to the pillaging, while the army remained mostly an observer of the happenings. In Toliara there was a broad and massive participation, entire families carried as many rice bags as they could handle: on bikes, rickshaws, carts or on their shoulders. Also children were involved, and some made themselves thieves for a bag of orange juice, or for parts of broken toys. BIANCO, an anticorruption agency financed partly by Norway, was also vandalized: computers were stolen and sold, documents were thoroughly burned (!), and even windows, toilets, cables and roof’s components disappeared. The looting left the city of Toliara with a feeling of Wild West in the air. Stores remained closed for some days; especially those run by Indo-Pakistanis, who fear the anger of the Malagasy people against their commercial supremacy. Some goods are now scarce in the city: milk and butter, which are produced and distributed only by Tiko, but also oil is hard to find. Many foresee an increase of rice prices, the main staple for Malagasy people, and market prices for vegetables and fruits rose already.
Some weeks passed in uncertainty and apparent calmness, until Saturday 7th of February. Samedi Rouge (Red Saturday), as it is called by the Malagasy press, witnessed the shooting against the demonstrators who crossed the “red line” in front of the presidential palace in Antananarivo, making 28 victims (including a reporter), and numerous injured. A video reconstruction of the shooting is now being sold on DVDs and publicly screened in several Malagasy towns.
Ravalomanana did not recognize Rajoelina as a counterpart for negotiations in the beginning, and discharged and replaced him from his post as mayor of the capital. Predictably Rajoelina did not accept this decision, and went on to designate another replacement, leaving the city with two unelected mayors.
Finally on February 23rd, negotiations between Mark Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina started, with the assistance of representatives from the Council of Christian Churches in Madagascar (FFKM). Three meetings between the two contenders increased the hope for a peaceful solution. However, the hope diminished when the president did not personally attend the 4th meeting. Predictably Rajoelina declared the end of negotiations, and did not show up to the next meeting. Also the archbishop of Antananarivo, Odon Razanakolona, one of the facilitators, quit the negotiations, as he saw no developments. As a result, demonstration restarted, leading to two other fatalities in Fianarantsoa. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon appointed the former foreign minister of Mali, Tiebilé Dramé, as facilitator, and asked the archbishop to rejoin the negotiations.
The consequences of this political instability are numerous. Among others, the crisis of the tourism market, with nearly 100% cancellations, and 50% workers sent home according to the FHORM (Fédération des hôteliers et restaurateurs de Madagascar), and the Malagasy National Tourism Office, who made an official declaration asking the parties to quickly find an agreement. Another immediate consequence is the delay of the start of the new university year, with even the risk of a year cancellation due to lack of security (L’express de Madagascar, 28.02.2009).
Many are tired of the president’s actions, denouncing him of focusing on his own interests over those of the population. At the same time, it is not clear if the young businessman and former DJ Rajoelina will be the answer. It seems like the ex-major will continue his efforts to remove the president; but after the last events in Antananarivo, his popularity seems uncertain. Many see in this situation a repetition of Ravalomanana’s struggle to take the power from Didier Ratsiraka in 2002. However, there is a core difference: in 2002 the two contenders where conflicting over a contested election, while Rajoelina’s current request is not related to any electoral event.
Finally, this contest involves two merinas (the ethnic group of the highlands), and might not seem a fair play to the coastal population, who would like to see their ethnicities well represented, maybe by a president.
Uncertainty spreads in Madagascar, people wait.